update: 2017 01 10
& Decisions Department (OIDD),
and Marketing Department
The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania
Pre-registration made easy: AsPredicted.org
Blog: Data Colada
Treadmill desk? Some info
Reviewing editor for Science
Associate editor for Management Science
Consulting editor Perspectives on Psychological Science
Editorial review board Journal of Marketing Research
Ad hoc reviewing: way too much
Podcast: Listen to my conversation/interview with Julia Galef for "Rationally
31) Simonsohn "Two Lines: The
First Valid Test of U-Shaped Relationships" (.pdf)
quadratic regressions to test for u-shapes. That
appraoch is invalid. This paper introduces an easy
30) Mislavsky, Dietvorst & Simonsohn "Critical Condition:
People Only Object to Corporate Experiments if they Disapprove
of a Condition"
Why do people hate corporate
experiments? They don't.
29) Mislavsky & Simonsohn "Weird Transactions Lower
Valuations: Evidence from the 'Uncertainty' Effect"
FKA "Risk is Weird."
Simonsohn, Simmons, Nelson "Specification Curve:
Descriptive and Inferential Statisics for all
Plausible Specifications" (SSRN)
27) Simonsohn (in press) "Each Reader
Decides if a Replication Counts; Reply to Schwarz and Clore (2016)" Psychological
& Simonsohn (in press) "Power
Posing: P-Curving the Evidence" Psychological Science
Carney, Cuddy & Yap (2016, .pdf)
review 33 published studies to identify moderators that may
explain a failure to replicate the original power posing
study. But, the 33 studies lack evidential value.
Simmons, Nelson (2015) "Better p-curves" Journal
of Experimental Psychology: General (SSRN)
We modified p-curve to be more
robust to fraud, honest errors, and p-curvers mistakes
24) Simonsohn (2015) "Small Telescopes: Detectability
and the Evaluation of Replication Results" Psychological Science
V26(5) p.559-569 (SSRN
| R Programs)
A new appraoch to
evaluating replications that combines hypothesis testing with
effect size estimation
(formerly titled "Evaluating
Simmons, Nelson (2014) "P-Curve and Effect
Size: Correcting for Publication Bias Using Only Significant
Results" Perspectives on
Psychological Science V9(6) p.666-681 (SSRN | p-curve.com)
How to estimate effect
size, if you must.
Simonsohn, Uhlmann (2014) "Matched-Names Analysis Reveals No
Evidence of Name-Meaning Effects: A Collaborative Commentary
on Silberzahn and Uhlmann (2013), Psychological Science V25(7), p.1504-1505 (.pdf)
Collaborating with original
authors we show Herr Kayser is not disproportionately likely
to work as a manager after all.
21) Simonsohn, Nelson, Simmons, (2014) "P-curve: A Key to the
File Drawer," Journal of
Experimental Psychology: General, V143(2), p.534-547
How to analyze the
distribution of significant p-values for set of findings to
undo impact of selective reporting, of both studies and
analyses, on hypothesis testing.
In other words: p-curve
helps tell true findings from the rest.
20) Simonsohn (2013)
"It Really Just Does Not Follow, Comments on Francis
(2013)", invited commentary for the Journal of Mathematical
Psychology, V57(5) p.174-176 (.pdf)
Francis misuses and
misinterprets the publication-bias test. Lesson: tool
developers should anticipate misuse and take safeguards to
19) Simonsohn (2013) "Just
Post it: The Lesson from Two Cases of Fabricated Data
Detected by Statistics Alone," Psychological
p.1875-1888, (SSRN |
The analysis of Sanna's
and Smeesters' raw data show they are fake. On top of many
other advantages, posting raw data will reduce academic
18) Simonsohn, Gino (2013) "Daily Horizons:
Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgment from 10 years of
MBA-admission Interviews", Psychological
Science, V24(2), 219-224 (.pdf)
(earlier draft: SSRN)
Interviewers avoid giving
too many high/low scores on the same day.
17) Nelson, Simmons, Simonsohn (2012) "Let's
Publish Fewer Papers," Psychological
Inquiry, V23(3), 291-293 (.pdf)
16) Simonsohn (2012) "It Does Not Follow: Evaluating the
One-Off Publication Bias Critiques by Francis
on Psychological Science, V7(6), 597-599
The critiques are cherry
picked, and ignoring evidence is not a justified conclusion
from the presence of publication bias.
15) Simmons, Nelson, Simonsohn
(2011) "False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection
and Analysis Allow Presenting Anything as Significant", Psychological Science,
V22(11), 1359-1366 (SSRN)
experimental demonstration, and simulations showing that if a
set of disclosure requirements we propose are not followed,
results in experiments are uninterpretable.
14) Saiz & Simonsohn (2013) "Proxying for
Unobservable Variables with Internet Document Frequency", Journal
of the European Economic Association, V11(1), 137-165 [DATA]
Frequency of Internet documents
about X proxies for frequency of X; using insight we replicate
published studies predicting corruption.d
(2011) "Spurious Also? Name Similarity Effects (Implicit
Egotism) in Employer Decisions," Psychological
work for companies with which they share an initial. Probably
a spurious correlation.
12) Simonsohn (2011)
"Spurious? Name Similarity Effects (Implicit Egotism) in
Marriage, Job, and Moving Decisions", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, V101(1)
Three JPSP papers find that
people disproportionately choose spouses, places to live and
occupations with names similar to their own. Analyzing the
same and additional data I find that the existing evidence is
note: Pelham and Carvallo wrote a rebuttal to
this paper. Here is my 5-page rejoinder titled "In
Defense of Diligence".
11) Pope, Simonsohn (2011) "Round Numbers as Goals:
Evidence from Baseball, SAT Takers, and the Lab", Psychological Science, January, V22(1), 71-79 (.pdf)
performance is measured numerically, round numbers become
implicit goals that strongly influence behavior around them.
10) Simonsohn (2011) "Lessons from an Oops at Consumer Reports:
Consumer Follow Experts; Ignore Invalid Information", Journal of Marketing Research,
February V48(1) 1-12 (.pdf)
Consumer Reports released
& then retracted info on carseat safety. Surprisingly,
people successfully ignored the retracted information.
9) Simonsohn, (2010) "eBay's Crowded Evenings: Competition
Neglect in Market Entry Decisions", Management Science, V56(7), 1060-1073 (.pdf)
Too many sellers end their
auctions at peak time, so they lose money.
8) Simonsohn, (2010) "Weather to Go to College", Economic Journal (.pdf)
More prospective college
students enroll after visiting campus on cloudy day.
7) Simonsohn, (2009) "Direct-Risk-Aversion: Evidence from
Risky Prospects Valued Below Their Worst Outcome" Psychological Science,
V20(6) 686-692 (.pdf)
People value lotteries less
than their worst outcome due to uncertainty; not confusion or
6) Small & Simonsohn (2008) "Friends of Victims:
Personal Experience and Prosocial Behavior." Journal of Consumer Research,
V35 532-542 (.pdf)
Donors give more to
charities helping the misfortune of someone they know.
5) Simonsohn, & Ariely (2008) "When Rational
Sellers Face Non-Rational Consumers: Evidence from Herding on
eBay," Management Science V54(9)
eBay bidders choose
auctions with more bids, so sellers start them cheap.
4) Simonsohn, Karlsson, Loewenstein, and Ariely (2008) "The
Tree of Experience in the Forest of Information: Overweighing
Experienced Relative to Observed Information" Games and Economic Behavior,
V62, 263-286 (.pdf)
People respond more to
information that affected them directly.
3) Simonsohn, (2007) "Clouds Make Nerds Look Good: Field
Evidence of the Influence of Incidental Factors on Decision
Making", Journal of Behavioral
Decision Making, V20(2) 143-152 (.pdf)
academic attributes are weighted more if evaluated on cloudy
2) Simonsohn & Loewenstein (2006) "Mistake #37: The
Impact of Previously Faced Prices on Housing Demand," Economic Journal, V116(1)
Movers from more expensive
cities rent more expensive apartments, at first.
1) Simonsohn (2006) "New-Yorkers Commute More Everywhere:
Contrast Effects in the Field," Review of Economics and Statistics, V88(1) 1-9
cities with longer commutes live further from work, at first.
Selective Reporting Invalidates Bayesian Results Also" (SSRN)
p-hacking misleads Bayesians as much as it misleads
Note: this will probably become part of a
larger paper on Bayesian inference
Simonsohn, Simmons, Nelson
"Anchoring is Not a False-Positive:
Maniadis, Tufano and List (2014) 'Failure-to-Replicate' is
Actually Entirely Consistent with the Original" (SSRN)
The anchoring replication is not significantly
different from 0, but also not significantly different from